I didn’t want to write directly about the campaign that has just taken up so much of my life so I have turned my thoughts to the French election. President Emmanuel Macron posed the question to the French people, ‘Qui sommes nous?’ (Who are we?). He had called a snap election in the wake of the far right making huge gains in the European elections and gambled on the good sense of voters to reject electing them to take over the national government. His gamble seems to have paid off for the moment, with the Left Alliance (the New Popular Front) winning most seats ahead of Macron’s centrists and the far right National Rally third. This was achieved by the left and Macron agreeing to run single candidates against National Rally in the run off voting to maximise the chance of defeating them - a tactic called ‘Le barrage’ or ‘the Dam’. As I write it is still not clear what will happen in terms of a government being formed as there is no consensus on working together in coalition, only on how to defeat National Rally in that second round of voting. Far right political parties had made gains in the European elections – but did not do quite as well as some anticipated. While Italy, France and Germany saw the far right advance, the picture across the rest of the EU was more nuanced. Far right parties only came first in five countries, and second or third in another five, predominantly at the expense of liberal and green parties.
Here in the UK we took our eye off what was happening in France as we were caught up in our own general election. We too were faced with the question ‘Who are we?’. We answered ‘We are not Conservative’. After 14 years of austerity, chaos, scandal and mismanagement, we said it was time for ‘Change’. ‘Change’ was also the choice of voters in Scotland, finally rejecting the SNP and 17 years of failure and broken promises. While the far right ‘surge’ largely failed to materialize in the UK, thanks to our First Past the Post voting system, the substantial vote for Reform UK demonstrates increasing support for anti-establishment, populist and anti immigration policies.
The US Presidential election in Nov will not allow for tactical voting or the equivalent of the French ‘Le barrage’. There it will be a fight to the death between the populist far right policies of Trump and liberal Biden (or whoever becomes the Democratic choice).
The irony is, just at the moment we in the UK answered the question ‘qui sommes nous?’ by choosing to reject the right wing policies of the Tories and, in Scotland, the populist UK sceptic views of the SNP - just when we chose solid, stable, calm good governance over chaotic panic, the rest of the world seems to be locked in a battle to stem the rise of the far right.
That brings me to the age old question of voting systems. For the French National Assembly, all candidates winning more than 12.5% of the votes of registered voters, or the top two candidates if two candidates didn’t make it, go through to a second round. Then parties can agree to withdraw in favour of another candidate as a tactic to defeat a third. This is what happened in France resulting in the defeat of the National Rally. In the UK under our FPTP we have just had our first election ever where four parties got over 10% of the vote share. It is clear that the British public is prepared to weigh up whether to vote with heart or head.
If the election had been under the same system as used for the Scottish Parliament, Labour’s representation would have been almost halved but we would still have been the largest party. SNP would have got double the number of seats, still well down on last time, but the biggest change would have been Reform UK. They would have got nearer a hundred seats rather than the 5 they did. While PR may be fairer in determining the number of seats gained it can be very undemocratic in political outcomes, giving disproportionate power to minorities. Remember the role of the Greens in the Sturgeon government. Here in the UK. whether we know it or not, we have just answered the Macron question with an emphatic ‘We are not for PR!’. That is in effect what we have said by giving Labour a majority of 172 over all other parties. There is just no possibility of another referendum on PR, just as there is no possibility of another on Scottish independence. ‘Nous sommes la majorité’ - ‘Vive la majorité’.
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