“The turn outs were terrible. Our voters stayed at home. They’ll be back” Wrong! They have all been really significant in the scale of the swing. The turn outs have been in line with by election turn outs historically. And no - your voters (SNP or Tories) didn’t stay at home, all voters stay at home in a by election and yet Labour won well.
The Wisdom of the Crowd
Someone in Canada did a Masters Degree in Political Betting called ‘the Wisdom of the Crowd’. It examined why people collectively reach a decision or change their mind about something with no obvious single reason for doing so. What have the Tories and and SNP done to be found out at last and for the voters to turn against them. Nothing new really. The Tories have never learned from 1997 and have continued to cut taxes for the rich and slash public services. All their Chancellors have kept pictures of Geoffrey Howe and Nigel Lawson on their desks. They never moved on - just got lucky electorally. As for the SNP, it’s not a question of why have the electorate turned on them but why has it taken so long?
Expressing a view on Gaza
It’s totally exhausting expressing a considered view on Gaza - making it clear your abhorrence of the terrorist atrocities of Hamas and of all antisemitism while doing justice to your unqualified support for the Palestinian people, your condemnation of the Israeli government’s collective punishment of innocent civilians and the need for a two state political solution however far off that might be. It’s exhausting unless you just want to take sides and scream abuse at each other. When it comes to a ceasefire the word ‘immediate’ has come to have a high level of usage but a low level of meaning. I think it was Biden who compared Gaza to Northern Ireland - not a helpful comparison except in one respect. The breakthrough there came when the terrorist gunmen and the political intransigents of both sides finally recognised the need to put violence aside and embrace compromise and cooperation.
I’m a celebrity get me out of here.
I’ve watched and enjoyed most of the series up till now. That’s been against my better judgment. I don’t really like the nasty trials but have found the social interaction fascinating. Some of the celebrities I thought I wouldn’t like have turned out to be interesting and attractive people. But even I have my limits - watching this one is a step too Farage. I was wondering if the makers of the show could use the advances in AI to spice things up and bring in a few celebrities from the past like Stanley Matthews, Agatha Christie, Marilyn Monroe or Oscar Wilde. Wilde could have had Nigel Farage’s jungle stay in mind when he wrote ‘some cause happiness wherever they go - others whenever they go.’